As you say, completely dry here in Stoke Gifford and Mangotsfield in Bristol, but I can see a lot of grey clouds building around me.
just down the road from you Bleachy we have opaque grey sky mod rain with no wind just slight drift of the cloud from the SW very interesting watching the radar with this 'storm' forming insitu lots of colour in the echoes to the south of Bristol
Very dark here in Stoke Gifford, Bristol.
Hoping for something!!!! C'mon lets av it!
On the subject of April convection, and not withstanding the event on Saturday night/Sunday which is likely to deliver more significant rainfall to many areas, I am watching Mon night as most models bring an organised active trough up from the continent which given the source could well be thundery and torrential in nature. Worth watching.
It has been a day here of seemingly continous rain showers
Some of them very heavy
Same here in Northeast Somerset. Not all heavy but some torrential bursts thrown in at times, totalling 8mm since 10am.
GFS is predicting good CAPE and LI values ahead of that trough on Monday afternoon.
Not that it means much really at this range... the convective forecast parameters chop and change so much.
Amazing sometimes Martin, I'm (as the crow flies) just a few miles East of you and we've had hardly a drop of rain, I did notice the very dark clouds your way and some looked really potent but here it was rather pleasant for a change.
CAPE of over 500 this afternoon at Herstmonceux:
The forecast goes for showers possible turning thundery in the evening, followed by thudery rain tonight with flood risk.
Yep - nice sounding that. 26000 foot cloud tops
Edited by user 30 April 2012 07:04:27(UTC)
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Gona be interesting in S/SE England later on today and overnight.
Looks like we may be too far north for any action Duane, we will probably just get the rain tomorrow! Despite a very convective April I've not actually heard any thunder yet this year - very unusual for me by end of April!
Personally I don't think there will be too much electrical activity tonight, not on a summer scale anyway. Yes there may be a few embedded storms and rumbles but a large area of thundery rain seems much more likely imo. I hope I'm wrong though..haven't experienced thunder here for ages.
Will just get the rain Jerry.
Clouds may build to 29000 feet this evening at Larkhill, for example
Shame I'm in Portsmouth
Still, could be interesting down here too as the convection meets the coast!
Very nice draw from the south in the upper levels thanks to that LP from the weekend. Whole world of trouble brewing towards Central France
Hi Ian - Never that convinced about homegrown instability in these set ups at this time of year although a large mass of thundery rain looks very likely to develop thanks to our French compatriots. Lots happening due south at present but I suspect things may sheer a tad westwards as it approaches the UK. It all depends on how far things destabilise eastwards over the continent. I certainly wouldn't rule out activity anywhere along the south coast this evening/overnight. There is potential for a very large amount of rain based on my experience of these set ups and 25mm would seem feasible(again) for some areas
Edited by user 30 April 2012 12:29:42(UTC)
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