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Younger Dryas User is suspended until 20/06/2013 10:38:44(UTC)
#121 Posted : 16 April 2012 20:55:31(UTC)
Younger Dryas

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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Just avoided that new low, but bounced along near the bottom for a bit. Something of a rally in the last few days. But that's only in comparison with the weak showing for the first half of April.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Yes and the downward trend seems now to have manifested in the welcome colder weather we are receiving here
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Gandalf The White Offline
#122 Posted : 17 April 2012 22:10:59(UTC)
Gandalf The White

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Originally Posted by: Younger Dryas Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Just avoided that new low, but bounced along near the bottom for a bit. Something of a rally in the last few days. But that's only in comparison with the weak showing for the first half of April.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Yes and the downward trend seems now to have manifested in the welcome colder weather we are receiving here

Yes, there is a clear correlation.

Since the sun set this evening it's got colder here....

Is the time lag equally quick for the solar cycle?

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

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Steam Fog Offline
#123 Posted : 20 April 2012 07:34:26(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Having plumbed the depths a week ago, now soaring for the sky. So April may yet not be the no show it was shaping up to be. Whether this marks a return to growth from the five month downward trend, time will tell.

http://www.solen.info/solar/
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Steam Fog Offline
#124 Posted : 21 April 2012 10:26:15(UTC)
Steam Fog

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Spike continues with a new high for 2012.
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Gavin P Offline
#125 Posted : 21 April 2012 19:24:59(UTC)
Gavin Partridge

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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Spike continues with a new high for 2012.

Yep, things revving back up.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ http://gavsweathervids.com/
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Solar Cycles Offline
#126 Posted : 21 April 2012 19:46:54(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
Spike continues with a new high for 2012.

Yep, things revving back up.

Hopefully it bodes well for an upturn in temps in the next month or so. Sods law we'll be on the wrong side of this though.
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Solar Cycles Offline
#127 Posted : 27 April 2012 08:51:56(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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An interesting article regarding the Suns magnetic poles.

 

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/features/science/T120420005829.htm
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Steam Fog Offline
#128 Posted : 03 May 2012 07:01:52(UTC)
Steam Fog

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A very busy second half of April doesn't look like it made up for a very quiet first half with a small overall drop from March.

http://www.solen.info/solar/solcycle.html
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polarwind Offline
#129 Posted : 03 May 2012 13:24:27(UTC)
polarwind

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see - http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

Solar Cycle Prediction

(Updated 2012/05/01)





ssn_predict.gif (2208 bytes)

Click on image for larger version.

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 60 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years.

 

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
Dave
Derby
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RobSnowman Offline
#130 Posted : 03 May 2012 21:11:55(UTC)
RobSnowman

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Thanks for the update. A good descriptive link that you have posted there.
Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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nouska Offline
#131 Posted : 05 May 2012 14:45:52(UTC)
nouska

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Some of you may remember the long thread that was started by Waterspout - in the early posts there was a table of cycle 24 predictions made by various researchers and institutions. In light of the current forecast of 60 that would put C De Jager closest. (They predicted 68)

I thought it would be intersting to see what they had to say in recent works.

http://www.cdejager.com/...nd-Min-JCosm-8-19832.pdf

Blog. http://translate.googleu...3YWvemeyPP1LE3Br9HcSF_Ug
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Solar Cycles Offline
#132 Posted : 05 May 2012 19:11:53(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post
Some of you may remember the long thread that was started by Waterspout - in the early posts there was a table of cycle 24 predictions made by various researchers and institutions. In light of the current forecast of 60 that would put C De Jager closest. (They predicted 68)

I thought it would be intersting to see what they had to say in recent works.

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/2010-Grand-Min-JCosm-8-19832.pdf

Blog. http://translate.googleu...3YWvemeyPP1LE3Br9HcSF_Ug
Thanks nouska, I haven't spoke to Waterspout for quite a few months now. Good read also!
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RobSnowman Offline
#133 Posted : 05 May 2012 20:19:16(UTC)
RobSnowman

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[quote=nouska;328288]Some of you may remember the long thread that was started by Waterspout - in the early posts there was a table of cycle 24 predictions made by various researchers and institutions. In light of the current forecast of 60 that would put C De Jager closest. (They predicted 68)

I thought it would be intersting to see what they had to say in recent works.

http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/2010-Grand-Min-JCosm-8-19832.pdf

Blog. http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?rurl=translate.google.com&sl=nl&tl=en&u=http://www.cdejager.com/&usg=ALkJrhgqFz3YWvemeyPP1LE3Br9HcSF_Ug[/quote]

Thanks for that. Interesting article that too. Grand minimum here we come.

Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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Steam Fog Offline
#134 Posted : 13 May 2012 08:38:07(UTC)
Steam Fog

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So far May's been gently dropping away from late April highs, but not falling to early April lows.

About average for 2012 so far.

But a long way from the heights of last autumn.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html 

Edited by user 13 May 2012 16:12:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified
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Ulric Offline
#135 Posted : 13 May 2012 10:11:11(UTC)
Ulric

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Originally Posted by: RobSnowman Go to Quoted Post

Thanks for that. Interesting article that too. Grand minimum here we come.

I think it's worth pointing out that The Journal of Cosmology is not a serious peer reviewed journal. It seems to be some kind of collection point for scientific conspiracy theories and other crackpot froot-loopery.

The paper cited could have done with a run over with a spelling checker prior to publication too.

Edited by user 13 May 2012 10:12:46(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

"It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."
Lucius Anneaus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, n. 91
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RobSnowman Offline
#136 Posted : 13 May 2012 13:51:12(UTC)
RobSnowman

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Originally Posted by: Ulric Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: RobSnowman Go to Quoted Post

Thanks for that. Interesting article that too. Grand minimum here we come.

I think it's worth pointing out that The Journal of Cosmology is not a serious peer reviewed journal. It seems to be some kind of collection point for scientific conspiracy theories and other crackpot froot-loopery.

The paper cited could have done with a run over with a spelling checker prior to publication too.

Thanks for the heads up.

Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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Alastair Anderson Offline
#137 Posted : 15 May 2012 12:53:29(UTC)
Alastair Anderson

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Originally Posted by: Ulric Go to Quoted Post

[quote=RobSnowman;328440]

Thanks for that. Interesting article that too. Grand minimum here we come.

I think it's worth pointing out that The Journal of Cosmology is not a serious peer reviewed journal. It seems to be some kind of collection point for scientific conspiracy theories and other crackpot froot-loopery.

The paper cited could have done with a run over with a spelling checker prior to publication too.

[/quote

 

You are right Ulric - we should be wary of those who cannot spell or have articles properly proof read. By definition they are likely to be unreliable. Also I would agree that if De Jager comes out as closest to the true TSI in the current cycle he is almost certainly just lucky, and serious discussion of his ideas does not warrant a place here.
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nouska Offline
#138 Posted : 15 May 2012 13:27:21(UTC)
nouska

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LOL at you guys - I can forgive some spelling mistakes when the man is 91 years old and not a native speaker. Are you saying that he is a charlatan in the field cf **********?
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Younger Dryas User is suspended until 20/06/2013 10:38:44(UTC)
#139 Posted : 15 May 2012 14:40:50(UTC)
Younger Dryas

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Location: London (Mostly)

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

Possibly already peaking and, if so, maybe the coming quiet period will be upgraded from equal to Maunder Minimum to colder than Maunder Minimum
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Steam Fog Offline
#140 Posted : 20 May 2012 22:52:39(UTC)
Steam Fog

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The last week has been at the stronger end of the range 2012 activity.
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