The IDO (Indian Ocean Dipole) model has updated and for those wanting substancial rain fall look away now
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2012.1feb2012.gif
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2012.1feb2012.gif
As for Spring its warm, warm, warm,
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2012.1feb2012.gif.
As for summer its mixed
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2012.1feb2012.gif
Autumn is well away yet but its colder than average
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2012.1feb2012.gif
Edited by user 20 February 2012 12:29:18(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Feb 2012 to Monday 5 Mar 2012:
The end of February and the beginning of March looks set to be rather changeable, particularly across the north of the UK, with cloudy, mild and wet periods, punctuated by brighter, colder but showery interludes. During the colder spells these northern areas are likely to see a risk of overnight frost developing, with some snow possible over higher ground. It is also likely to be rather windy at times, with a risk of gales in some places. Further south conditions are likely to be somewhat drier and more settled generally, with the best of any sunshine here and temperatures around, or perhaps slightly above average. However, these areas also subject to some unsettled spells at times, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds, spreading from the north.
Updated: 1139 on Mon 20 Feb 2012
During early to mid March, daytime temperatures may start off below normal across some northern areas, bringing an increased risk of some wintry weather. However, a recovery to near or above normal values seems likely. Nighttime temperatures follow a similar pattern, with frosts most likely early on in the period. Further south, temperatures more likely to be around average, or perhaps slightly above, both by day and by night. Rainfall amounts look likely to continue below average in eastern and perhaps southern areas, but elsewhere average rainfall is most likely. Sunshine amounts should be above average in all areas.
Not too much relief for the Southern Water boards there.
Possibly, but from a personal perspective it's very nice to see average or above average temperatures for most of the time in the south.
From that I infer another high pressure dominated spring for most of the UK, with decent temperatures and then a strong Euro High influence this summer, with drab but not very wet westerlies away from the south where it could be a good summer except for the serious drought that would likely develop.
If you check out the SST's it looks like we could see an emergence of El Nino this summer.
That TORRO list needs updating
A mild whinge: Alex Deakin, on the BBC1 weather tonight, referred to the 14 °C recorded around the Moray Firth as "more than double" the average for the time of year. Grumble,
LOL - I notice evil mild ramper Darren Bett has been doing to forecasts on BBC News 24 tonight. His time has come
Forecasts to avoid I feel
That is indeed a v v naughty comment from a trained weatherman - he deserves a seriously smacked botty for that
This has to be an error surely?
Houghton Hall having an 1" and a half of rain? Would have thought the snowmelt would have already gone through. Don't recall rain yesterday to that magnitude
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_latest_radar.html
Last updated: 2302 on Mon 20 Feb 2012
Is this Houghton between Kings Lynn and Fakenham?Did it even catch a shower yeterday?
Yeah, I think thats the one
There was some drizzle on the radar that was barely reaching the ground (at least here) but surely not that amount
Edited by user 21 February 2012 09:57:41(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Latest from the met office
This period looks set to be rather changeable across the north of the UK, with cloudy, mild and wet episodes punctuated by brighter, colder but showery interludes. During the colder spells these northern areas are likely to see overnight frost in places, with some snow possible over higher ground. It is also likely to be rather windy at times, with a risk of gales around coasts and hills. Further south, conditions are likely to be more settled, with the best of any sunshine here and temperatures around, or perhaps slightly above average, though colder nights are increasingly likely towards the start of March. Spells of rain and stronger winds are likely at times, but southeast Britain is more likely than not to see only small accumulations of rain.
Updated: 1137 on Tue 21 Feb 2012
During the middle part of March, daytime temperatures may start off below normal across some northern areas, bringing an increased risk of some wintry weather. However, a recovery to near or above normal values seems likely. Nighttime temperatures follow a similar pattern, with frosts most likely early on in the period. Further south, temperatures more likely to be around average, or perhaps slightly above, both by day and by night. Rainfall amounts look likely to continue below average in eastern and perhaps southern areas, but elsewhere average rainfall is most likely. Sunshine amounts should be above average in all areas.
No sign of any significant rain for the drought areas
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
So if EL Nino does emerge what would that give us? a better chance of seeing a proper summer for once with some decent heat?
Plenty of heat on offer last year if for some reason you like to sweat & cook yourself - the summer started in April and carried on until early October. The only summer month down here that was "cold" was July - and that was mostly due to a very pleasant couple of weeks towards the end of the month.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn03797_1yr.gif
Anyway, an El Nino developing would be too late to do much for us this summer, thankfully. If one were to develop during the summer it'd probably scupper our chances of a cold winter though!
Really brings home the completely different climates the South east and North west have.
I know for sure why the NW of England was chosen for the cotton mills,and it ain't for the med type drought like climate.
Neighbourhood dogs?
I thought it was the Houghton Hall near Carlisle.
It can't be, as its the top rainfall figure for this region for yesterday