4.1C For me I think this winter season will balance out to around average with both cold spells and mild spells
I'm not guessing, however .... this autumn feels strikingly similar to 1978 to me.
Hence my CET forecast.
As posted in winter prospects METO hHdley probabilty charts coming down slightly on the mild side.May cause some to re think but I'm sticking to slightly below average for the winter ahead.
Just a reminder that there is a week to go before the closing for your own overall winter 11/12 CET forecast.
Could I ask Mods if this could be left as a sticky as it covers the entire winter period and the competition will develop as each winter month passes.
Just a reminder that the final date for your overall winter 11/12 CET forecasts is this Wdenesday midnight 30th November.
Might Brian be tempted to put on overall figure on his upcoming winter forecast?
Edited by user 26 November 2011 11:35:03(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
I will go for a CET of 5.7c (hope i am completely wrong)
3.5c for me.
Mostly dry overall but with a wet, mild start, colder in New Year with one or two significant cold spells in January and February.
MetO Probability charts ALWAYS indicate a mild winter!
I think winter 2005/06 was the only one the MetO said would be colder than average and that turned out a damp quid.
!!!STOP PRESS!!! WHETHER IDLE LRF for WINTER 2011-12 follows:
December - mild zonal SWly type with occasional cooler interludes. Snow absent except for northern hills. Frost rare except anticyclonic interlude possibly mid month. Potentially very stormy and wet into 12 days of Christmas. CET 5.9
January - Continuing stormy wet and increasingly cold start with possibility of colder from blast from NE in 2nd week. Snow in N and E. Frosty Anticyclonic 3rd week then mild end with SWlies. CET 4.4
February - Mild continues week 1. Colder with snow in East week 2 . Week 3 Renewed attack from N. Snow N and W. Week 4 Mild/Cold battle. CET 2.3
Chances of success - 1/1000.
Methodology - Intestinal
P.s. Fairly similar ideas to that of a certain A Woodcock, by the looks of it. We shall see.
It occurs to me some people may wish to hold off from making a post in this thread until after the December CET predictions have closed. This is on the basis a winter CET prediction might give some hint as to the person's view on what will happen in December (particularly if they go for an extreme winter CET either warm or cold).On that basis I have suggested to Roger that it may be sensible to keep the predictions in this thread open for the first day or two of December which I don't think really gives anyone an advantage given we are talking about a forecast for a whole season. So far we appear to have 45 predictions. If all those who take part in the monthly CET competition join this one as well then we ought to get up to around 100.
If I'm honest GW, I would say not many would be thinking about making the comparison (at least I'm not). this for me was always a bit of fun and not taken seriously. I wouldn't for one minute, have thought about the figures in here being related to those in the year long thread.
Based heavily on gut feeling once beyond December, my winter 2011/12 CET forecast is:
That relies heavily on February being very cold indeed although there is plenty of scope for a colder January than what I'm thinking of
No idea really - a season is too long for any sort of accurate prediction from me. I will have a guess at 3.6C.
My guess = 3.8c