Yes it does seem to be dropping like a stone at the moment, I must admit.
According to the website above their analysis is that Despite this cooling, current indicators remain well short of the strong La Niña conditions evident at the equivalent time last year
I read it as saying we are far from getting a strong one (currently)
How low can she go ?
One of the forecast runs has La Nina going off the scale below -3 !
How far exactly, we can't tell, it was off the scale :-)
But it certainly looks like one to watch as the MEAN of the members now gets close to -2.
There were some predictions tht most recent LN would be record breaking as well - it didn't happen. The outliers are unlikely to be right.
True enough, unless they are. Three of them now falling off the bottom of the chart. PErhaps it is a trend...
True, but there were prolonged periods with high SOI numbers.
NOAAs latest weekly update
It look slike a trend to me. Now seven members going below minus three and the mean getting to minus 2.25.
and every single member going below minus one as well
Edited by user 05 September 2011 21:04:24(UTC)
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This is what NOAA say who produce this model
'ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter'
which comes from looking at all tne model outputs
Well, it is now -0.7 so that is looking wrong already and it is still summer never mind fall:
Looking more like a trend every week.
Edit: Or did i just show my lack of awareness re the official or otherwise of the seasons? I can never remember the dates official or otherwise.
Edited by user 07 September 2011 12:27:49(UTC)
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The report I quoted was issued by NOAA on 6 September, the 6 th data of meteorological autumn. I don't pretend to know about the ENSO forecasts myself I just thought the CFS-2 ensembles needed to put into the context of other model forecasts and NOAAs analysis (CFS is their model after all)
NOAA: "La Nina is back", 8th September
The average on this Enso model now touches minus 2.5.
It would be fascinating to see what the model is picking up on to predict such a strong La Nina in the coming months.
I bet phase synchronization ( or lack of it) could be applied to a alot of climate science - as in what might happen cause changes to ocean mixing over long periods of time. (hundreds of years)See - http://www.sciencedaily....2011/09/110922102238.htmScienceDaily (Sep. 21, 2011) — The interaction between El Niño events and the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific can be described through a nonlinear phase synchronization mechanism, according to a study by researchers in Hawaii. The findings are expected to improve prediction of El Niño events.Phase synchronization is a phenomenon in which separate oscillatory systems develop joint coherent behavior by some nonlinear mechanism. First described in 1673 by Dutch scientist Christiaan Huygens, this phenomenon occurs for instance when an applauding audience suddenly starts to clap in unison or when human breathing patterns lock to multiples of the heart beat.Two climate modes dominate the temperature variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Generated through air-sea interactions, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the tropical Pacific climate mode that disrupts weather patterns world wide about every 2 to 7 years. The seasonal cycle of temperatures off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands emerges through coupled air-sea interactions in response to off-equatorial solar radiation and can vary substantially from year- to-year in amplitude and phase with respect to the calendar, depending on the state of the El Niño system.The interaction between El Niño events and the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific can be described through such a nonlinear phase synchronization mechanism, according to a study published in the September issue of Physical Review Letters by University of Hawai`i Manoa (UHM) PhD student Karl Stein and by Axel Timmermann and Niklas Schneider, professors at the International Pacific Research Center and the Department of Oceanography, UHM.The team of climate scientists analyzed decades of temperature observations to detect evidence for phase synchronization among these two dominant tropical climate modes. Their extensive and complex mathematical computations showed that El Niño events and the annual temperature cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific synchronize their common dynamics in what scientists call a "2:1 Arnold Tongue," after the famous Russian mathematician Vladimir Arnold (1937-2010). This partial synchronization indicates that at certain times El Niño and the annual cycle run according to the same beat, while at other times the phases of the two climate modes "slip past" each other.and..............
NOAA on La Nina.
"Currently, La Niña is not as strong as it was in September 2010. Roughly one- half of the models predict La Niña to strengthen during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (Fig. 6). Of these models, majority predict a weak La Niña (3-month average in the Nino-3.4 region less than -0.9°C). In addition, a weaker second La Niña winter has occurred in three of the five multi-year La Niñas in the historical SST record since 1950. However, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS.v1) predicts a moderate-strength La Niña this winter (between –1.0°C to –1.4°C) and CFS.v2 predicts a strong La Niña than –1.5°C), which rivals last year’s peak strength. For CFS forecasts made at this time of year, the average error for December-February is roughly ±0.5°C, so there is uncertainty as to whether this amplitude will be achieved. Thus, at this time, a weak or moderate strength La Niña is most likely during Northern Hemisphere winter."
Going down - now to (minus) -0.78
and still possibly going a lot lower...
Does anyone know why such a strong Nina is being forecast? It would be particularly unusual for a second year Nina. What signal or driver is the basis for this?
Personally I don't believe a word of it. It would be very unusual for a La Nina to keep go on stregnthning after Christmas and to reach its peak in March.
I think CFS has lost the plot, but we'll see.
Indeed the only example of a La Nina that has continued strengthening after Christmas is 1893 and to a smaller extent 1950, I think they are overplaying it at this point, especially seeing as it's a double dip La Nina.