Solar activity continues to be low.Current sunspot number is 42 and NOAA are predicting that the current solar cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a number of only 90,the lowest of any cycle since no 16 in 1928.
click here for the rest of it and others - and thanks to Kevin Bradshaw (Mr Data) for making the articles available
Yup, the period from 1903-1932 saw much in the way of mild winter conditions, comparable to 1989 to 1995, yet this coincided with low solar activity, so low solar activity doesn't always mean cold winters.
However I do believe solar activity increases the chances of colder winters, it is clear though that during the early 19th century another factor was at play which was stronger, it is worth noting that the Tropical Atlantic SST's very very negative in this time. Conversely the period from 1995 has seen an increase in the persistance of negative NAO phases, a time where tropical Atlantic SST's have been very positive.
We'll see what happens, but a couple of interesting pointers from the MetO.
1) They now believe El Nino leads to increased polar blocking and colder winters in north western Europe2) They think as much as 50% of the variability from year to year is caused by solar activity. Smell the coffee.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/35145bee-9d38-11e0-997d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1RacNghPj
.....and thirdly -
When sunspots and other solar activity are at a minimum, the effect is to mimic El Niño conditions, ie more easterly winds and cold winter weather for Britain.
I wonder if this is why so many LRFs are falling by the wayside and so much comment on how weather patterns are atypical of ENSO conditions.
There are two distict issues in looking at sunspots- the short term of variability in solar cycles and the longer term one of changes in intensity of successive cycles.
Taking the variability within an individual cycle first,in the article the exact quote from Adam Scaife is " we believe that [the solar cycle] accounts for 50% of the variablity from year to year."There is also statement that when sunspots and other solar activity are at a minimum the effect is similar to that of El NIno;More eastertly winds and cold winter weather for Britain.From my own research covering the late 19 and 20th century the coldest winter year in a solar cycle is close to the minimum or a year after.
Looking at longer term variability I summitted an article to "Weather"(not published!) back in 2001,examining the CET temperature trends during the 20th Century and observing that the trend in temperature was closely matched by an increase in sunspot activity,which could account for some ot the warming.I suspect it was an unfashionable view at the time.So it is good to see the Met office recognising the solar effect.The proof of the pudding will be in the next twenty years to see if the predicted lower solar activity is accompanied by a fall in winter CET.
From m,y own
Is this the big Pressuti winter?
I know he said they would get colder but is this the big one?
Just ask YD, 2011/2012 is only the beginning
I don't forecast particular seasons, but I think the trend is pretty clear
Well the current trend seems to be for winter to end earlier and earlier. Are you saying it'll all be over by November this year?
I'd like to go back to normal winters. With some cold weather, frosts and maybe even some snow in February.
So I hope you're wrong
Boo, go away!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif
For what it is worth here are the NOAA seasonal forecast maps.It shows a slightly cooler than average decdember on the monthly but the whole winter is shown as slightly above average.
I know these maps have been subject to ridicule but last year they picked up the cold december well in advance-which is more than METO did!
Yes if possible so we can return to our normal summers again. Last winter was the worse one for me to miss out the deep cold potential in here except snow was fine and then full of nothingless Jan and Feb. If this winter going to be like 88/89 due to nature balancing out which I don't like but may help break the continuous poor summer runs. That winter 88/89 ended the runs of few years of poor summers. I remember it was around 13C overnight and mid teens max in Leeds on my last day of school before Xmas vacation then going to Cyprus to find it colder than UK.
Exacta Weather going for a big freeze it seems.
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html
Interesting forecast there - what's their forecast record like, did they get last year and the year before correct? Either way quite brave to call the winter now.
Sounds like a hopecast to me. Possibly a case of deciding on the general synopsis and plucking various meteorological theories to try to back it up.
Every LRF is a hopecast. The fact is they are scientifically impossible with any accuracy and consistency. I'll never cease to be amazed that people even bother to read them let alone discuss the merits of them. Flip a coin in the air and play heads or tails. It's probably more fun
Edited by user 20 July 2011 11:26:18(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Agreed as I remember they forecasted this summer to be a scorcher and look what happened, NW forecast for a 1976 type summer also failed too. Now they talking about big freeze, and I bet we ended up with 88/89 winter instead.
Sorry but what? I have no recollection of METO issuing a winter forecast last year, as they have stopped producing public long range forecasts. And what they did do was call December incredibly well (to my recollection) when the models were going somewhat beserk in late november.
I know, I'm gonna get wet legs
They didn't forecast a scorching summer, their opinion, based on the parameters mentioned, was that summer would likely be cooler than average with above average rainfall dependant on ENSO conditions.
Recent LRF updates seem to be backing away from the colder outlook but at this stage it's just a pull of the puggy machine anyway.
I have no recollection of METO issuing a winter forecast last year, as they have stopped producing public long range forecasts. And what they did do was call December incredibly well (to my recollection) when the models were going somewhat beserk in late november.
The MetO also called the end of the cold spell pretty well, when certain other were going for a continuation through Jan and Feb. Their public forcasts were excellent last winter.
It'll be interesting to see what GloSea4 is suggesting for next winter, though as we hopefully now all know, being a 3 month probability forecast, you need to study (and be able to understand) several runs to make any meaningful prediction. Unless you want to pour cold custard and rancid sardines over yourself like the Media so perfectly did last winter!
Edited by user 20 July 2011 12:50:07(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
I had a look back at their/his (looks like a one-man band) forecasts since 2009, and he has called each summer and winter well. However, on every occasion he has forecast cold winters and poor summers; he has yet to forecast mild or warm. He doesn't seem to produce forecasts for autumns or springs. There was, however, no mention of February's mildness.
It's a bit like Ian Brown et al a few years ago, calling every season mild or warm, back before 2007.
If he manages to successfully predict a mild or warm season, then his reputation might increase. Certainly, his methods seem similar to **********'s, but without the rhetoric, the hysteria, or the twisting of facts or loose interpretation of previous forecasts to call something correct that was actually wrong.
Edited by user 20 July 2011 13:50:10(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
You are quite right in that METO did not produce a long range forecastAS it happens I checked with METO around September time and ther NAO forecast was around -1.6.They however dropped seasonal forecasts and replaced them with a month ahead and on that basis got December right.
However the key words above are that NOAA picked up the cold December well in Advance by September if I remember rightly.
Anyhow for what they are worth here is the current monthly probability forecasts from NOAA.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif