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Gray-Wolf Offline
#621 Posted : 20 February 2011 18:12:55(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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Location: Hebden Bridge

Yup! Gas Hob and fan assisted electric oven.......now how did we get here?

Meanwhile (back at the Ranch)

 http://www.woksat.info/etctb20/tb20-1120-f-grn-n.html

this does seem to show that the ice (in this area) has broken into much smaller pieces? A week ago it was fragmented but into larger lozenges/strips/ Heres the same area on the 11th;

http://www.woksat.info/etctb11/tb11-1114-d-grn-n.html

Edited by user 20 February 2011 18:27:40(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Koyaanisqatsi

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AIMSIR Offline
#622 Posted : 20 February 2011 18:46:03(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: AIMSIR Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

So much for Nina' ,low sun, and PDO-ve!!!

And the Moon.

Lunatic.... 

Been called worse, Peter.

 

 

Gray-Wolf Offline
#623 Posted : 20 February 2011 19:33:53(UTC)
Gray-Wolf

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDr12nyuD04&feature=player_embedded

Greenland expert nattering (16th Feb) about general climate (permafrost melt, tipping points) and his work on Greenland. 40min's so you'll need a quiet moment (or two!!) but maybe enlightening for some (20 mins in to just past the hour!)

Reckons Extreme Ice Survey caught the Peterman calving.......more news later!! That'd be quite a sight!!! 4* the size of Manhattan Isl all of in one crunch!!!

Koyaanisqatsi

VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Gandalf The White Offline
#624 Posted : 20 February 2011 19:53:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDr12nyuD04&feature=player_embedded

Greenland expert nattering (16th Feb) about general climate (permafrost melt, tipping points) and his work on Greenland. 40min's so you'll need a quiet moment (or two!!) but maybe enlightening for some (20 mins in to just past the hour!)

Reckons Extreme Ice Survey caught the Peterman calving.......more news later!! That'd be quite a sight!!! 4* the size of Manhattan Isl all of in one crunch!!!

Thanks for that link - I haven't seen this series before.  Watching it at the moment - very informative.

Just reached the part about the latest Amazon drought, which is probably worth a thread on its own.

 

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

Gray-Wolf Offline
#625 Posted : 20 February 2011 20:06:50(UTC)
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http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/essay_wadhams.html

And this for folk wishing to learn the basics on sea ice formation.

For those with a longer Cryospheric pedigree check out how 8 years of change has impacted 'ice types'

Most of us saw the North pole Cam 2 do the pole to past Svalbard  (half the distance the trans polar current flows) in a little over 8 months, the paper says the full Trans Arctic current trip takes 3 to 4 years!!! well before the noughties it did!!

Here's a section (cheer's NOAA!) about leads being ripped open;

Since ice has little strength under tension, this divergence can open up cracks which widen to form leads. In winter leads rapidly refreeze because of the enormous temperature difference between the atmosphere (typically -30°C) and the ocean (-1.8°C). The heat loss from a newly-opened lead can be so violent (more than 1000 W m-2) that the lead steams with frost smoke from the evaporation and condensation of the surface water. A young ice cover rapidly forms, within hours, as nilas if the surface is calm, and this cuts out the evaporation.

The heat loss from the newly formed leads....... what about the areas, now bereft of all ice come early winter, pumping that kind of energy out???

Koyaanisqatsi

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Gandalf The White Offline
#626 Posted : 22 February 2011 12:00:31(UTC)
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The IJIS site wasn't updated over the weekend but is now up to date again.

We seem to be at that point in the cycle were the growth is slow and interspersed by occasional reductions.  We are at about 13.6m sq km now, in the same group as 2005 and 2006 and with about two weeks left before the turn, assuming an average date for the peak.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

Stephen Wilde Offline
#627 Posted : 24 February 2011 22:41:21(UTC)
Stephen Wilde

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Nothing new about low summer sea ice amounts near the north pole:



http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&d=NENZC18690203.2.12

and:

http://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/cgi-bin/paperspast?a=d&d=ST18730328.2.20

Edited by user 24 February 2011 22:43:59(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Gandalf The White Offline
#628 Posted : 24 February 2011 23:38:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Stephen Wilde Go to Quoted Post

That's an interesting interpretation of those extracts Stephen.  Did you spend any time cross-referencing the narrrative with an atlas and the state of sea ice as shown on Cryosphere Today in the 'modern era'?  I assume not, else you would have drawn a different conclusion.

Quote from the 1st paper:

"After an unsuccessful attempt to make the eastern shore of Greenland in latitude 75 degrees...."

Now look at the late summer state of the ice. Here is the end of August 2008 and 2009:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20080831.jpg

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/ARCHIVE/20090831.jpg

Going ashore at 75 degrees would have been a matter of wading through open water.....

The report then refers to the ship having "pushed her way round the fields in a north-easterly direction" and reaching a point 80.5 north and 5 east.  Again if you look at the above images you will see that there is no ice at all on the suggested track

 

Aside from these specifics, the paper makes no reference to the state of the ice from any other direction.  Therefore you conclusion is at best misleading and at worst another attempt to play down the state of the Arctic ice.

Disappointingly inaccurate but predictable in that you demonstrate yet again your desperation to disprove the case for global warming.

 

 

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

four Offline
#629 Posted : 24 February 2011 23:41:03(UTC)
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So reduced sea ice in recent years is proof of global warming?

Can you prove that ?

Stu N Offline
#630 Posted : 24 February 2011 23:53:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: four Go to Quoted Post

So reduced sea ice in recent years is proof of global warming?

Can you prove that ?

Can you make a post in this forum that is anything other than drive-by rhetoric?

Home: Reading, Berkshire
Work: Wallingford, Oxfordshire
Surrey John Offline
#631 Posted : 25 February 2011 06:05:42(UTC)
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I posted this in Scandinavian reports in weather section, but will repeat it here.

The Baltic sea is now about three quarters covered in ice, probably most since mid 1980s

http://www.smhi.se/ocean...rt/sstchart_20110224.pdf

Kingston upon Thames

15m ASL
Devonian Offline
#632 Posted : 25 February 2011 09:02:03(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Surrey John Go to Quoted Post
I posted this in Scandinavian reports in weather section, but will repeat it here.

The Baltic sea is now about three quarters covered in ice, probably most since mid 1980s

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/arkiv/sstchart/sstchart_20110224.pdf

Yes, and (for recent times) an impressive amount of ice. otoh, I think I've seen similar amounts in a recent year (at maximum extent) though I'm not sure which one and there is still time this year for ice to further extend. Perhaps that area of ice can effect our spring weather...

Edited by user 25 February 2011 09:02:54(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Gray-Wolf Offline
#633 Posted : 25 February 2011 10:36:41(UTC)
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We had similar last spring but at that time had the bering straits 'ice factory' pumping ice out into the bering sea giving is a 'false' high extent.

I expect ,as we saw last year, this ice to be broken and melting by May and that land to the east of it may be a little chillier for a month or so but us here? nope ,I don't think so?

Koyaanisqatsi

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Gandalf The White Offline
#634 Posted : 25 February 2011 10:39:43(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: four Go to Quoted Post

So reduced sea ice in recent years is proof of global warming?

Can you prove that ?

I can prove quite easily that you don't read posts properly.

 

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

Gandalf The White Offline
#635 Posted : 25 February 2011 11:03:46(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gray-Wolf Go to Quoted Post

We had similar last spring but at that time had the bering straits 'ice factory' pumping ice out into the bering sea giving is a 'false' high extent.

I expect ,as we saw last year, this ice to be broken and melting by May and that land to the east of it may be a little chillier for a month or so but us here? nope ,I don't think so?

Yes, the trend is following a similar path.   Just looking at the historical data the last decade has seen increases between zero and 400k from yesterday to the peak - and we know that last year was exceptionally late and probably for the reasons you have mentioned before (i.e. ice break up giving a larger ice extent, whilst ice area behaved more normally).

We are still at 13.6 million sq. km., which means a peak below 14.0 million looks increasingly probable.  This would put it in the lowest two maxima (2006 -13.78m, 2007 - 13.95m).

 

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
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AIMSIR Offline
#636 Posted : 26 February 2011 02:50:43(UTC)
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Any hint of what we could call normal Arctic sea ice extent or thickness as measured over the past thirty or so years are gone.

Changes are clearly evident.

Edited by user 26 February 2011 02:54:08(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Stephen Wilde Offline
#637 Posted : 26 February 2011 09:26:16(UTC)
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The question is as to how typical was the Arctic sea ice cover at the beginning of that 30 year period.

Since low levels of Arctic sea ice have often been present in the past it may well be that the base level for the past 30 years was not typical at all.

It appears only to have been attained at the end of an earlier 30 year cooling period so we are only looking at half of a 60 year cycle.
Gandalf The White Offline
#638 Posted : 26 February 2011 09:32:37(UTC)
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More guesswork Stephen. You have little support for your position on this. The reality is that the ice extent is on a downward trend and that there is sufficient evidence that this is highly unusual.
If the Inuit, for example, are reporting unprecedented changes then I will take more note if this than of your musings.
Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

65m ASL
51.68N, 0.38W

Gray-Wolf Offline
#639 Posted : 26 February 2011 11:48:38(UTC)
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I think we all accept the 'data' and know that we have 'long cycles' in the basin , it's just gone too far this 'warm cycle'. We know we lost 50% of the ice there between 1955 and 1980 (most of it in the 70's) and the rest we saw ,via satellite, over the last 30 years.

We seem to have lost over 100,000 today and I fear that we are seeing a very early end to freeze this year. I very much suspect that any increases from here on in will be via fragmentation and drift.

We all know just how much 'young ice' is in the basin (ice under 5 years comprises over 95%!) and that this ice will naturally 'fade away' over any normal season. Any 'early start just opens up dark water to speed the process.

I am so very worried about what we are witnessing. i thought we would have had more 'extent' and that 'freeze' would have been at least 3 weeks longer. with the synoptics over Bering and Barents being so warm i can only see more losses this coming week and ,to me, this will mark the beginning of the melt season.

I am so very sorry for those holding out hopes of recovery, I know what it is to hope beyond hope, but we must accept our new reality and move forwards?

 

Koyaanisqatsi

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AIMSIR Offline
#640 Posted : 26 February 2011 16:11:57(UTC)
AIMSIR

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Originally Posted by: Stephen Wilde Go to Quoted Post
The question is as to how typical was the Arctic sea ice cover at the beginning of that 30 year period.

Since low levels of Arctic sea ice have often been present in the past it may well be that the base level for the past 30 years was not typical at all.

It appears only to have been attained at the end of an earlier 30 year cooling period so we are only looking at half of a 60 year cycle.
I was of the opinion also that we were at the bottom of a cycle and ice extent and volume were due to recover,but in reality the figures don't look good at the moment.

It might not happen ,but if there is a repeat of 2007 It would be an eye opener.

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