Happy New Year to all, currently cold around +1c in N Ayrshire as the daylight fades, fairly uninspiring stuff really! Looks likely that i won't see any further snow around here before i leave for Toronto on Thursday and i'm wondering having read the posts and weather online for the GTA for the first time in 3 days or so whether i'll miss some apprieciable snowfall over there too before i get back? Hopefully not!
Some quite amazing temperatures in Southern Ontario over the New Year and Hamilton and Burlington have made national news with the high marks recorded. Here are some Environment Canada observations from the 1st Jan :
Record warm temperatures to start the new year.-------------------------------------------------------------==weather event discussion==A strong low pressure system from Colorado tracked across Northeastern Ontario yesterday. This was the third such low over a period of only a few days and the resulting persistent southerlyFlow brought unseasonably warm temperatures to southern and EasternOntario. Numerous new maximum high temperatures records haveWere observed for new years day as a result.The following is a list of new temperatures records as of 1 AM today.-------------------------------------------------------------Location new record old record old record yearWindsor airport 11.3 10.4 2007Goderich 12.1 9.9 2007Waterloo-Wellington 10.5 9.0 2007Hamilton airport 11.1 10.6 1966Burlington Piers 12.7 10.7 2007Toronto Pearson 12.0 9.2 2007Toronto downtown 10.7 10.1 2007Toronto Island 9.0 8.7 2007Toronto Buttonville 11.4 9.6 2007Cobourg 7.6 7.2 2007Mount Forest 9.0 8.8 2007Collingwood 11.5 9.8 2007Lagoon City 8.0 6.0 2007Muskoka airport 8.2 6.7 2007Parry Sound 8.2 7.0 2007The Hamilton figure is the warmest Jan 1st in 45 years and Burlington got in on the act with the warmest temperature recorded anywhere in Canada yesterday at 12.7c! Not quite sure where Burlington *****is Paul? Debate is raging on the Spec website regarding it's locale, which also reports on the high temps and then the big cooldown behind - http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/308201--mild-temperatures-set-new-records.
Weather currently in Hamilton is -5c in flurries and as Graeme and Paul reported it does look likely that some measureable snowfall will affect the GTA and Golden Horseshoe through this week, nothing amazing but perhaps more than we'd seen so far this winter. I agree however with your comments Graeme regarding the lrf for Feb in particular that Brett just posted. He is a top notch forecaster but his extended outlook for Jan changed constantly during December so a drier pattern in Jan followed by perhaps a stormier Feb can be taken (for now) with a dose of the usual!
It will be interesting watching from afar over the next few days as to whether T.O. & Hamilton get some proper snow, hope it hangs on in there for Thursday!
Take Care
Afternoon from a somewhat dreich Fife: back to work tomorrow On the other hand, it's a short working week!
Looks like January may be a very interesting month in terms of North American weather. Here's Brett Anderson's take on Canadian goings-on through mid-month (something pretty much for everyone in there). And Joe B's busy hyping up 'the coldest US January since the 1980s'. Certainly looks like turning colder over much of the US next week, although continued blocking over NE Canada may mean easternmost/NE Canada remains milder than normal. The latest 12z GFS looks impressive for very extensive US cold by the middle of next week.
In the short-term low pressure tracking SE over the Great Lakes should brings some snow for Stewart returning to Ontario after the holidays - perhaps a widespread 2-4cm event with up to 10cm in favoured spots on Thursday. This same storm may then bomb out over the ocean bringing the threat of a decent snow storm anywhere north of New York through New England into New Brunswick. One to watch.
Hello all - v quick evening update.
We had about 1cm last night but it has mainly melted during the day as temps got just above freezing. More sleet than snow in downtown TO during the day. Currently flurries with a light covering. It looks like we may get a little more later in the week as we catch the tail end of a storm out over the east coast.
I have to say my "gut feel" is not to be too optimistic about overall snow levels this winter. This winter just seems more like last winter to me (grey days, less preciptation) than the winter before (lots of sunny days interspersed with more significant snow). This is just my impression though, totally unscientific, so almost certainly wrong
Stewart, I'm not really sure about "Burlington Piers" - I googled it and wasn't much the wiser - it looks like the weather station is somewhere over the other side of Burlington (Tyandaga - up towards the NW side of the town). 12.7C is incredible - I really didn't think it was anything like that here, so there may have been some very local factors involved.
Hi Paul, the way the pattern has been I think your 'gut feel' seems pretty sensible. Even looking ahead to next week, as a colder pattern sets in, much of the potential for a larger snowstorm will probably be to your south (hope I'm wrong though!).
That said it looks good for you to pick up a few cms of snow today as a weak area of low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. This same system brings the threat of heavier snow to New Jersey/NY State (possibly inc. NYC)/ southern New England as it strengthens on reaching the coast tomorrow. An interesting set up, which will likely produce a narrow band of 6-8" snows somewhere within these areas. It will then move north bringing snow to northern New England/the Maritimes.
Still looks like a potent arctic outbreak next week - some brutal cold into the Canadian Prairies courtesy of a cross-polar flow facilitated by a powerful area of high pressure over Alaska.
Hello folks, back in Canada after a wonderful trip home and back to some Ontarian snowfall! It's beginning to look more like real winter out there although we only have 4cm of snow on the ground from yesterday. Promising signs are for later tonight and tomorrow as EC are talking about 5-7cm additional snow from flurry activity that will enhance as the night goes on. I know by our standards this is pretty lame, but it's better than the majority of the last 18 months around here if it comes off.
Anyway, i'm taking the good wife out to dinner this evening in Hamilton, so better go. Cold stays with us and increases as next week rolls in as Graeme reported earlier in the week.
Have a great weekend.
Ah, a snowy looking scene in downtown Toronto this morning - the view down onto the ROM: http://www.rom.on.ca/visit/webcam.php
Certainly looks like 'real winter' is setting in Stewart, with another few cms to come today and a subzero week of temperatures on tap.
Not just southern Ontario getting in on the snow there's more snow to be had over in Atlantic Canada from the same system that gave the NE States snow yesterday pushing north: up to 15cm over NS. Normally this would not be a big deal out there but it's been incredibly snowless this winter.
Another snowy area is Alberta into Saskatchewan. Looks like Edmonton will see up to 20cm of the white stuff and the attendant snowfall warning is out. Peter in Calgary actually looks like missing the worst of this storm in terms of snowfall amounts but there is a blowing snow warning out and it will be cold, snowy and windy through the weekend. Next week is chilly in Calgary with the mid negative teens for highs.
Brett on Accuweather has the long range ECM call for more blocking over NE Canada and so a continuation of the unseasonable warmth there. Hudson Bay still hasn't completely frozen over and we're well into January now - incredible mild anomalies in that part of the continent this winter.
Stateside early next week looks very eventful with a widespread snow and ice storm affecting areas from the Plains through the Midwest, Ohio Valley, South into the NE. Generally snow to the north but a widespread ice storm to the south may be the big headline maker.
Enjoy the weekend everyone!
Indeed, going to be a chilly week/10 days - hilarious ensembles though, if they weren't for Calgary you'd swear they were faulty!
I'm sure Stewart and/or Paul will be posting later, the snow has really picked up in Toronto and amounts have been revised upwards to 10-15cm. Recent report of 'heavy snow' at Pearson [9am local time] - you don't see that too often.
Not quite warning threshold but a special weather statement issued:
Special weather statement issued for..City of TorontoSimcoe - Delhi - NorfolkDunnville - Caledonia - HaldimandNiagaraCity of HamiltonHalton - PeelYork - Durham...Heavy snow bands off Lake Ontario..At 8:30 AM radar showed a heavy east to west band of snow off LakeOntario extending into the Toronto area. Localized snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are associated with this band. The band will gradually become more east-northeast to west-southwest oriented by late this morning moving the heaviest snow into the Mississauga and Oakville areas. The band will weaken this afternoon as it shifts through the Hamilton area and into Niagara.The heavier snow has now shifted out of the York Durham area with little further accumulation expected.As the heavy snow bands move through..Expect visibility to be reducedTo less than a couple hundred metres at times..With near zero visibility possible in the heaviest snow bands.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SWS_bulletins_e.html?prov=on
Edited by user 08 January 2011 15:12:40(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Welcome back Stewart, and good timing - my pessimism was misplaced
We have had 7-8 cm overnight here and have just had another inch with an intense shower in the last 20 mins, so possibly going on for 10cm here. The most snow I've seen here since Feb 2009.
My driveway snowpiles are back although the kids have nobbled most of it to build a snow fort.
Interestingly the Weather Network was forecasting far less snow - 1cm for Oakville/Burlington last night, aad Accuweather was only going for 1-3cm IIRC). I don't know if we are picking up some unexpected lake effect snow (wind seems in the wrong direction for that), but I'm not complaining, nice to see some snow, particularly at the weekend.
Yes, finally winter paid a visit for the GTA and Hamilton areas this morning and quite a surprise to be honest in the accumulation totals for some areas compared to the forecast as you said Paul. Snow has stopped now here in Dundas, about 10cm lying from the combined effort of Thurs/Fri & Sat morning. Just saw a live report from downtown Hamilton on TWN and they don't look like they have much more than an inch / slushy deposits which means the road crews done a very good job in the city at least.
We did catch some lake effect flurries (significant) and from the dream scenario the East - if only it blew off the lake all the time, we's have Strathroy and Sarnia events! All that action was overnight into and through breakfast, grumble only that Toronto (Pearson) is reporting 17cm at this hour and they did get a semi-clobber from the lake band that dropped 7cm also on TWN HQ in Oakville, just up the shore from here. Paul, i'd imagine that you have more now than inland areas like here as the afternoon snowband from T.O. largely missed the Hamilton area but stayed fairly active on the shoreline so Burlington might have had more of an impact.
Snowband is now over St.Catharine's & Niagara producing whiteout and snowsquall like conditions briefly and accumulations according to EC of 2 inches per hour (5-6cm).
Here's some media coverage of an event that TWN report is the heaviest snowfall for Downtown Toronto since Dec '08 :
Hamilton Spectator - http://www.thespec.com/news/local/article/319236--unexpected-snowfall-causes-trouble-for-motorists.
Latest King City Radar showing the band now over Niagara Falls - http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR.
Latest Weathernews online update from TWN -http://www.theweathernetwork.com/video/forecasts.
And our old favourite, Ancaster roundabout -http://www.ourston.com/resources/webcams/hamilton.html.
Glad i came home now! Oh, and it's cold at -6c and going to get colder and more proper snow forecast for Tue/Wed. Brill!
Snowy regards from Dundas
My cousin who stays in Uxbridge which is to the North East of Toronto I think says it is very snowy there and the most they have had this winter. I visited last summer for my 10th visit to Canada and it was the first poor summer weather I have experienced there but still had a great time.......was not cold just wet a lot. My uncle has a house at lake muskoka and I always planned to take the family over one winter for a change and go snowmobiling on the lake and to see some real snow.....however after this winter I no longer need to...I just need to invest in a snowmobile for here....In all seriousness I do intend to have a winter holiday in the next few years there so it is with great interest i read all these reports.
great reading guys
Incredible lake-effect storm for South Bend, Indiana: two day total of 36" of snow under a 'perfect' set up. A couple of articles from Accuweather and the local newspaper.
incredible themal gradients across the rockies coming up. uppers from -28c to 0c within a couple hundred miles !!!!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&carte=1
no wonder the jet is excited!!
Well, as expected, it's going to be an incredibly eventful week in the US in particular: widespread snows, deep cold, a nasty ice storm, some severe thunderstorms...pretty much everything on offer!
Perhaps the nastiest conditions are in parts of the south, facing an ice storm: at the moment northern and central Georgia and parts of South Carolina look to be hit hardest: power cuts, closed interstates, school closures - the Governer in Georgia has declared a state of emergency http://www.wsbtv.com/weather/26398414/detail.html
This storm is going to hit the coast, converge with another swinging east from the Plains and blow up into another major snowstorm for parts of the NE, including, again, New York City. Both Boston and NYC will probably see up to a foot of wind-driven snow, later tomorrow into Wednesday. There will be widespread snow further west too from the feature heading in off the Plains - snow from the Midwest through the Ohio Valley into the NE, mainly in the 3-6" range. Toronto should at least see some snow although once again it's the coast where the storm explodes - storm track this winter just hasn't been favourable for eastern Great Lakes snowstorms (lake effect aside).
Snow too for the west coast, including Vancouver, as Brett Anderson reports here.
Lots to watch as the week unfolds!
Hello folks, as Graeme just reported some incredible weather for many parts of N America this week. Parts of the deep south will and are seeing snowfall in locations more accustomed to 70f and major ice storms will occur where the boundary lies between the very cold air to the North and the slightly less cold further South. The East Coast, particulary Boston and New England but not exclusively will see big snow totals again and parts of the Ohio Valley into Western NY state seeing an all out blizzard for a good while Tue into Wed.
Then there's Canada!!! Vancouver forecasted to get 15cm at least from a storm system moving into the area. Particular focus on Vancouver Island for higher snowtotals. A major storm system, the same one that will 'bomb' in the U.S. NorthEast pounded Strathmore, AB over the weekend closing the trans-canada highway between Medicine Hat & Calgary trapping hundreds of motorists in conditions that state police called 'life-threatening'. Temperatures also miles below 0c.
And, then Southern Ontario Bitterly cold this morning at -15c @ 8am with -24 the windchill. Not surprisingly the City of Hamilton issued a cold weather alert last night and this remains in place concurrently. Temp has creeped up to -4c this afternoon. 11cm of snow lying out our front yard and 6cm in Downtown Hamilton, still 17cm at Toronto Pearson ahead of us getting into some East Coast Storm action tomorrow. Our snow will be the stuff that tracks north from the Ohio Valley and should give most of the GTA 5-10cm which will make for a tricky drive home tomorrow. Now, the real interest for me and anyone who watches the weather around these parts is that will the storm spinning, the wind will swing into the East to blow on-shore from Lake Ontario. In these scenario's in the past we have seen monster snowtotals (+70cm a few winters back!). That came from a storm that tracked right through the Great Lakes and this one won't do that so snow amounts even with lake enhancement will never reach that level. However, with a bit of luck - City of Hamilton/Burlington/Oakville could see 20-25cm of snow in total from tomorrow/ tomorrow nights event. EC however haven't issued a warning yet so caution is advised!
Remaining very cold once the storm passes with flurries and more snow possibly for Saturday. So, no direct hit so far this winter but this spell of snow far supercedes the cold but snowless winter of 2009/10.
Will post update tomorrow if i get the chance, take care.
Good luck Stewart - fingers crossed for you. Latest EC goes for 2-4cm today and 10cm tonight for Hamilton - not quite warning criteria (15cm in 12 hours) but that could easily be revised upwards if the lake enhancement really kicks in...
You know it's serious Stateside when Henry Margusity dusts off the 'Big Daddy' hat - see here. Most likely southern New England will be the bullseye with 18"+ in the worst hit parts from the intense coastal storm. Will check in tomorrow to see how it's all panning out.
LOL. I just received an email from someone who works for my company in Boston. She says she reckons she won't make it in to the office tomorrow due to 17 inches of accumulation being forecast
Some mega snow totals forecast for highly populated areas of the U.S. East Coast, last i checked NYC was now in the 6-12" zone. Boston and interior New England will have disruptive and at times dangerous snowfall from this event, wouldn't like to be booked on a flight in or out of Logan Airport tomorrow!
Anyhow, here we now have a EC advisory which gives me increasing confidence for an event in the Golden Horseshoe overnight tonight and maybe a snowday for some tomorrow :
Special weather statementIssued by Environment Canada Ontario region. 2:01 PM EST Tuesday11 January 2011.Special weather statement issued for..NiagaraCity of HamiltonHalton - Peel...Snowfall today and tonight..A low pressure system over Ohio this afternoon is tracking eastward to lie over Pennsylvania this evening. The snow associated with this system will begun in the London area and will spread eastward reaching the City of Toronto late this afternoon. General amounts of 5 to 10 cm are expected.Along the western shore of Lake Ontario from Oakville to StCatharines embedded lake effect snow bands will result in higher snowfall totals and visibilities possibly reduced to near zero at times. Snow is expected to begin in these regions this afternoon in advance of the main system and continue through to Wednesday morning.Snowfall amounts are forecast to be near 15 cm..Although snowfall warning criteria of 15 cm in 12 hours is currently not expected to be met.Listen for further statements. Additional information may also be found by consulting the latest public forecast.
TWN have 5-10cm for Hamilton, from past experience this may be alittle low however they are ramping up their storm coverage of this event. I have laughed this afternoon though at their idea that 5cm in Toronto tonight is a national news storyeither desperate or P.R. driven? Vancouver (in the outer West to folk in Oakville!) may well see higher totals than around here tonight from their storm, perhaps 20cm which i think is a pretty big story for that location.
Report tomorrow and update on what happened, if i can dig myself out......lol!