Whiteout:

Rob K:

Whiteout:

www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2043.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2044.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn20417.png

Here are the 12z GFS ensembles in WZ format:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Michael:

Here are the 12z GFS ensembles in WZ format:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Hmm, looks like some consistency for sub -5 air for London from the 9th to the 13th

Trickster:

Michael:

Here are the 12z GFS ensembles in WZ format:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Hmm, looks like some consistency for sub -5 air for London from the 9th to the 13th

And nothing outrageously mild either  

Continuing to look good all round IMO. No idea where some of the disappointment in here has come from in the last 48 hours. Remember it's early December not late Feb.

Brian Gaze:

Continuing to look good all round IMO. No idea where some of the disappointment in here has come from in the last 48 hours. Remember it's early December not late Feb.

 I think the situation in general is very positive. One thing we cannot expect is a winter long freeze. I think a better winter than the recent ones is all I'm after!

Historically people always talk of Britain's 'past winters' I actually think this is bigged up by 'fond memories' and 'rose tinted glasses' excuse the Cliche!

In recent history Britain never has and is never likely to experience frequent severe winters where snow and ice last for 3 months or more.
 

Agreed.  Its only December 4th, last year the main snow event occurred here around April 6th in mid afternoon.  That means theres' about another 17 weeks of cold event potential available.  And as this year the weather is unusually cool, cold, seasonal, then the old adages about winter starting after Xmas and "as the days lengthen - so the cold strengthens" may come into play this winter.  The models are pretty random after t144 and up to then it looks like a cold outlook with repeated bubbles of highs to the west and troughs nearby to the east, and the latest model runs continue the theme with the classic looping jet pattern that weve seen so little of in recent winters. 

WI

funkymonkey:

Brian Gaze:

Continuing to look good all round IMO. No idea where some of the disappointment in here has come from in the last 48 hours. Remember it's early December not late Feb.

 

 I think the situation in general is very positive. One thing we cannot expect is a winter long freeze. I think a better winter than the recent ones is all I'm after!

Historically people always talk of Britain's 'past winters' I actually think this is bigged up by 'fond memories' and 'rose tinted glasses' excuse the Cliche!

In recent history Britain never has and is never likely to experience frequent severe winters where snow and ice last for 3 months or more.
 

Yes, the pattern is looking much more variable than recent years with the very stong zonal jet not in evidence. Interesting weather to come.

The +168 ECM is very very interesting tonight!! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif 

Post a link to it pls

Brian Gaze:

Continuing to look good all round IMO. No idea where some of the disappointment in here has come from in the last 48 hours. Remember it's early December not late Feb.

GFS = Ok but no snow real snow risk in the <180hr range

METO = Toppler

Not ideal for mid December

squish:

The +168 ECM is very very interesting tonight!! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif 

Evening, quick post...

First off what a great start to the first winter month locally, been an excellent 5 days or so...

Now that is out of the way first thing I have to highlight is the uncertainty within the models beyond a certain time frame, granted this isn't nothing out of the ordinary but from looking at the charts daily I have spotted a handful of possibilities in recent days and some people have nicely picked up on this.  I think this uncertainty should give us some questions of what will happen as we head towards mid-month and beyond.

Secondly this evenings 12Z ensembles are excellent and once again the GFS operational is an outlier towards the 10th and 11th, IF the 12Z ensembles verify then we could clearly be looking at another 3 to 5 day cold spell and I think it all hinges on what happens to the ridge to the W of the UK after the early part of next week, if it collapses down quickly like the 12Z GFS shows then it will clearly be milder but given the ensemble mean IS NOT following that route I have some confidence in saying next week could be quite a cold week for many and over quite some time.

The longer term GFS charts are extremely interesting and again as a few have said already there really is something 'different' about this winter so far, we would normally be looking at ensembles that are spiking every couple of days as each North Atlantic low comes rattling in and then watching for that brief cool down as the system passes, clearly at the moment we are lacking any significant milder weather and milder possibilities.  It is not to say one will come around eventually, but overall things are promising and dare I say it but the longer term GFS is toying with high pressure to the E or NE as well as we approach the Christmas period.

So overall some excellent possibilties continue in what is turning into a fascinating and highly enjoyable opening start to winter 08/09.  That wasn't much of a quick post was it!

Regards, Matt.

GFS 12z +168 ensemble postage stamps 

Now we can see where the ECM is coming from!! 

squish:

The +168 ECM is very very interesting tonight!! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif 

Hello what do we have here than!