Essan
09 December 2010 22:45:48

Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 


Very good. slainte mo chara..Where do you get those emocons?.



Pinched from UKweatherworld


Slainte!


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
AIMSIR
18 December 2010 14:28:27

Where is Gandalf lately.
Give us a sign Peter.

Nordic Snowman
19 December 2010 21:45:04
Nordic Snowman
Devonian
21 December 2010 13:38:51

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


And the mainstream wonder why so many of us are doubtful...


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/8211948/Its-the-hottest-year-on-record-as-long-as-you-dont-take-its-temperature.html


 



C. Booker? No wonder you're doubtful.


Go figure


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
John Mason
21 December 2010 16:54:55

If you need to cite the likes of Booker or Delingpole to make your point, then I'm afraid there simply was no point in the first place!


Cheers - John

Solar Cycles
21 December 2010 19:33:10

Originally Posted by: John Mason 


If you need to cite the likes of Booker or Delingpole to make your point, then I'm afraid there simply was no point in the first place!


Cheers - John

Warmers favourite weapon, debunk the messenger! 

Stu N
21 December 2010 22:00:04

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Originally Posted by: John Mason 


If you need to cite the likes of Booker or Delingpole to make your point, then I'm afraid there simply was no point in the first place!


Cheers - John

Warmers favourite weapon, debunk the messenger! 



John is perfectly entitled to, given that one simple link above shows Booker to be talking bunk

Nordic Snowman
21 December 2010 23:29:00

Exuse me for being out of touch, but what is wrong with the article?


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Nordic Snowman
21 December 2010 23:50:44

Could a clear stratosphere contribute to warming?


http://spaceweather.com/


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Solar Cycles
22 December 2010 09:24:04

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Exuse me for being out of touch, but what is wrong with the article?


Absolutely nothing, though the warmers despise Booker, due too his ability of finding loopholes in a theory full of them! Have you noticed how no one has debunked the story yet, only the man!

Devonian
22 December 2010 09:39:48

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Exuse me for being out of touch, but what is wrong with the article?



Again, the graph I posted shows what. GISS is in very good agreement with the satellite data (that's the satellite data,  the one people like Watts and the rest of the dutyfull sceptics like to mention as accurate, the one the late, great, John Daly said was accurate to .001C). OK, sometimes one dataset reads higher or lower but to pick a time (like now) when GISS reads a little bit higher is to mislead people when, as I say, the data sets do move about a bit. At times GISS reads LESS than the other records - but you wont find Booker carping on abut that...


So, really, it's a pathetic attempt to mislead his readers (or perhaps to feed them what they want?) with a vile personal attack on a fine scientist. One or the other...


 


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
Devonian
22 December 2010 09:41:13

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Exuse me for being out of touch, but what is wrong with the article?


Absolutely nothing, though the warmers despise Booker, due too his ability of finding loopholes in a theory full of them! Have you noticed how no one has debunked the story yet, only the man!


Look at the graph I posted, read my reply to NS. Do I need to explain further?


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
Devonian
22 December 2010 09:47:31

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Could a clear stratosphere contribute to warming?


http://spaceweather.com/



Mike, do you now you accept there is warming ('contributed about .2c to recent warming' according to space weather)? So you both agree with Booker there isn't warm (he says the records showing warming are 'conjecture') and agree there is warming? Doh!


"When it takes nearly 900,000 votes to elect one party’s MP, and just 26,000 for another, you know something is deeply wrong."

The electoral reform society, 14,12,19
TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
22 December 2010 09:50:13

Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Exuse me for being out of touch, but what is wrong with the article?


Absolutely nothing, though the warmers despise Booker, due too his ability of finding loopholes in a theory full of them! Have you noticed how no one has debunked the story yet, only the man!


Look at the graph I posted, read my reply to NS. Do I need to explain further?



Indeed I posted a response to the article but in another thread, all the series show the same warming at the moment  GISS is a little cooler than the satellite record but all 3 surface series and both satellite series show the same warming and put this year either first or second warmest on record

Stu N
22 December 2010 12:32:50

Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Exuse me for being out of touch, but what is wrong with the article?


Absolutely nothing, though the warmers despise Booker, due too his ability of finding loopholes in a theory full of them! Have you noticed how no one has debunked the story yet, only the man!


Look at the graph I posted, read my reply to NS. Do I need to explain further?



I shall make it crystal clear just in case.


GISS and UAH do not measure exactly the same thing (surface vs lower troposphere). However, when put on the same baseline they match up very well; the trends are similar but at certain times you do see significant differences (GISS red, UAH blue):



So, note how they are similar, and also how GISS has been going up for the last couple of months while, yes, UAH is heading down. Booker is technically correct, but is sowing doubt over nothing at all. Why didn't Booker mention the several months in the second half of 2010 where GISS was much below UAH? Again, I'll repeat that these temp series are not measuring exactly the same thing.


So given that the trends are similar but month-to-month the series are often different, you'd think it might be sensible to smooth them over a year or so:



So UAH says the last 12 months was warmer than GISS. And as has been explained (most recently by Tom I think), many of the differences discussed here are due to ENSO (UAH is more sensitive to ENSO). Booker doesn't know this because apparently his source (Watts) doesn't seem to know it either, so they're just seeding the blogosphere with misinformation.


Tamino examines the claims that GISS is the 'odd one out' here while also pointing out Watts' blind spot for yet again failing to account for different baselines. Which has been pointed out so often it simply has to be deliberate.


 

Nordic Snowman
22 December 2010 13:42:01

I do accept that there has been warming, though I dispute the cause. Most (not all of course) 'sceptics' agree with that but obviously disagree with the cause and hence why we go round and round.


The clear stratosphere lessens some of the warming pinned onto AGW.


FWIW, I think the colder winters of late is already having an adverse effect on the AGW lobby. Public consensus is slowly but surely swinging IMHO.


10 years ago it was said that snow would become very rare in the UKMO. I know that doesn't mean it won't happen at all but nevertheless, 3 or 4 increasingly wintry winters doesn't conform to what was publically said 10 years ago when most kids would only see 'virtual' snow. Now... during the colder set up, AGW is blamed for it too. By that I am talking about the recent subject of more open water over the arctic leading to heat storage = warming lower atmosphere = increasing heights over arctic = increased blocking = breaking of polar vortex = displaced cold down over mid/N latitudes.


Can't have it both ways. It seems a plausible notion to me but then why wasn't it made  clear years ago? Always learning...? Is that the answer? Exactly. And there is why we don't know what the final outcome would end as?


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Nordic Snowman
22 December 2010 14:30:58

Posted this in the media thread but maybe more appropriate here.


Even Boris is becoming aware of a change in the air...


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8213058/The-man-who-repeatedly-beats-the-Met-Office-at-its-own-game.html


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Gandalf The White
22 December 2010 15:11:09
Mike, why do you keep confusing cold weather in parts of Europe with GLOBAL warming?

If/when we have a clear and sustained GLOBAL cooling then your comments will be well placed. Until then they seem a tad premature. Of course Jo Public is going to be misled, as even someone as knowledgeable as you is capable of misinterpreting the data.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Stu N
22 December 2010 15:11:50

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Posted this in the media thread but maybe more appropriate here.


Even Boris is becoming aware of a change in the air...


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8213058/The-man-who-repeatedly-beats-the-Met-Office-at-its-own-game.html



If only Corbyn was actually right rather than just claiming to be right. He may have been right about recent cold winter weather but IIRC* this is his usual modus operandi - and a stopped clock is still right twice a day


*I can't check because his forecast archive is short and disorganised


As far as I'm aware no-one has attempted a comprehensive independent review of his accuracy but I did bother to look at one month a while ago (think it was Dec 2009) which wasn't very good. Climate scientist James Annan did do it a bit more systematically for a while but I guess he stopped when he felt he'd made his point; he only looked at monthly temp/rainfall forecasts rater than individual events which gives *****more chance to be right.


http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2009/01/corbynwatch-2008-verdict.html

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