There are Icelandic volcanos that, statistically, should have blown big style by now; decades overdue. Average stats mean squat in isolation. We could have ten dry winters in a row now followed by several saturated ones. The average would maintain. 

 

It's good for southern aquifers and preventing summer droughts and water shortages surely?

You don't need excessive winter rainfall for that though. You simply need normal rainfall.

Apologies for going totally off topic but what's the significance of 3rd May, Matty?

Apologies for going totally off topic but what's the significance of 3rd May, Matty?

3rd May 2014. Bristol Rovers relegated to non-league. A wonderful day for Bristol. Now we can remind them they have only been a league club for two years. 

 

 

3rd May 2014. Bristol Rovers relegated to non-league. A wonderful day for Bristol. Now we can remind them they have only been a league club for two years. 

Ah, I see. 

 

Ah, I see. 

You really don't, but that's not the point, lol. It's a banter thing

Back on topic - Ian Fergusson was promoting this link on Twitter and justifying its accuracy. 

I could live with a wetter winter if it mean't milder temperatures and none of this silly time wasting, energy sapping marginal crap we get in that darker period of extended autumn. 

It stands to reason that there will be more moisture available in an alarmingly ever warming world.

I don't understand this, have the MetO looked at global drivers like sea surface temperatures to arrive at this forecast in a scientific way or just run the MetO Model forward a hundred times?

If its the later then what a load of nonsense given the unreliability of models beyond 7 days.

When issuing statements like this I wish researchers would explain their methods otherwise it just looks like attention seeking

Andy

Unfortunately a wetter winter would be associated with a very active Atlantic spawning cyclogenesis off Newfoundland.

I could live with a wet and even mild winter if it doesn't come with those stupid in-your-face southerly gales threatening to rip tiles off my roof every other day (aka the winter of 2014).

The danger of this type of prediction, Mother Nature could embarrass you

This was from 10 years ago and that there was 1 in 8 chance of summer 2007 being as hot as 2006!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTTyKoFSLnc