The FI section of the 12z GFS is insane. T+324 h shows the 20C 850 hPa isotherm reaching as far north as Newcastle and thicknesses in the SE probably around 582 dam. What a pity it's so far out...

Has the 582 dam line ever reached the UK before?

Got a good 576 circle in Aug 2003 IIRC meaning maybe 577 or so. 582 dam seems a difficult catch.

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The FI section of the 12z GFS is insane. T+324 h shows the 20C 850 hPa isotherm reaching as far north as Newcastle and thicknesses in the SE probably around 582 dam. What a pity it's so far out...

Has the 582 dam line ever reached the UK before?

Shows what is possible over the next 4 weeks or so.  40c is there for the taking.  Not sure about the 582 line - perhaps overnight on south coast around 4th August 1990?

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The fact that the models have recently already come up with this kind of scenario makes me think that may be they are on to something just a missing link to find at the moment

 

Shows what is possible over the next 4 weeks or so.  40c is there for the taking.  Not sure about the 582 line - perhaps overnight on south coast around 4th August 1990?

I think 40C is possible. Was it 2 years ago - we got 36 to 37C and well in my home area there was at least 4 hours of cloud  and we hit 36C. So 40C if its sunny is possible.

 

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Not sure i'd want to experience 40c. It would be a bit like sticking your head in the oven I should imagine.

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I think the thing is - and I am sure other members have had this thought - the last few years we have seen some extreme heat to our south, we just haven't had the right sypnoptics to advect it our way, at least not at the right time of year and for any length of time. But if we were to ever get it right, at the right time of year, and for a decent number of days, then very high temps and 40 celsius is a definite possibilty.

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Not sure i'd want to experience 40c. It would be a bit like sticking your head in the oven I should imagine.

I've experienced much higher temps in Death Valley. Also had no probs sleeping there despite not having air con. 

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I've experienced much higher temps in Death Valley. Also had no probs sleeping there despite not having air con. 

Low DPs make all the difference. I've done the mid-40s in Arizona, actually quite nice. The worst was upper-30s in Thailand with 100% humidity. Anyway, OT.

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Not alone..Control and OP identical

Hmmmm.

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Excellent. I have some time booked off end of July.
Current output from the Gfs op would have southern UK bathing in 37+ Celsius.

2 runs later and back to the drawing board. The depression of the end of this week further south again.

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Still quite warm for the south in late June but none the GEFS00z runs bring in exceptional heat.

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Still quite warm for the south in late June but none the GEFS00z runs bring in exceptional heat.

 

late June Brian? ....maybe that's the way forward, forecast the weather we had last month....maybe a bit more reliable? 👍👍😀

The reality of a UK low is now unavoidable but hopefully it wont hang around too long.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html

 

Ecm has it drifting away east after 2 days.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

 

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Ecm has Azores high ridging in nicely this morning . Hopefully a new signal being picked up.

Prob best we can hope for.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

 

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Is this the summer equivalent to the winter rollercoaster. 40c to 17c in one run

There seems to be some consensus among the models now for increased Atlantic mobility towards the end of the month but this far out I am struggling to believe any of the models. ECM re-establishes the high quickly but GFS wants to sink the high and bring in a full blown trough with incursions from the North.

 

GFSP becomes the GFS op from tomorrow's 12z cycle. The datasets are pretty similar to the existing ones so I wouldn't expect many probs with charts/forecasts on TWO or other web sites and apps. 

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Ecm has Azores high ridging in nicely this morning . Hopefully a new signal being picked up.

Prob best we can hope for.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

 

These don't look too bad at all really.

 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

One has the 24C isotherm crossing the Kent coast! 

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I reckon at least 60% of model runs since mid June have contained at least one near record breaking scorcher. My grasp of probability stats is woeful, but I think that implies we would be more unlucky than lucky to go the whole summer without one of these coming to fruition.

Maybe the mid June heatwave was that one near-record scorcher.

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