Part of me is wondering whether the projected switch in the AMO from a positive phase as we have at present to a negative one will do anything to improve our summers. My own view is that from the point of view of my own area, there has been a decline in the quality of our summer ever since the AMO last changed in 1998 or thenabouts, whereas prior to that year we had a run or quite reasonable ones. There is a thread discussing the AMO in the climate forum for anyone who is interested.

The understanding is that with a negative AMO we will have less rainfall so more sunshine, however, temps will be cooler (overall) but in Summer we wouldn't notice is at it would be warmer in the sunshine.

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The Law of Averages has come to pass. I'm expecting a mixed, rather changeable August myself. Maybe one more short lived heatwave before we wave goodbye to Summer 2017.

Yes, I think we're had the best of this summer has to offer.

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I wouldn't expect a summer to be wetter and duller than average...on average (as all but one has been in the last ten years, 2013). Average would be nice. This month is already wetter than average and last month was notably so. Even 2014 was a wetter than average summer here.

I guess to an extent I have forgotten what average should be like. I'd be happy with it never mind drier or sunnier than average, that would just be a bonus.

I'm trying to be positive but looking out the window, at the last 7 weeks of weather and the persistent output at the moment I genuinely wonder if we will go straight from spring to autumn (if we have not got there already). If there is any redeeming factor it would be that it has not been persistently cold, not does it look like being so on a daily basis. I'm watching the model output as I have done for weeks, hoping for something decent to reach this neck of the woods, and yes average rain and sunshine would be enough.

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As a rare summer visitor ( as rare as a decent summer spell in Doc's backyard- I do feel your pain!!), I wonder if we have already had the best of what summer has to offer. Seeing as I'm off on a two week caravan trip to Eastern England on Saturday, I have been looking ahead at next weeks offerings and apart from perhaps a brief ridge for the South it doesn't look good. Furthermore I do genuinely feel for our Northern contingent- even during our previous better weather down here it was decidedly poor up there. The AZ seems to be holding back, flattened by the jet which again seems rather oddly placed for high Summer. I'm sure we shouldn't worry-  the AZ will be back with a vengeance come Winter to snuff out anything remotely of interest.

If you have shares in a wellington boot company then smile, otherwise go buy a pair.

" "Part of me is wondering whether the projected switch in the AMO from a positive phase as we have at present to a negative one will do anything to improve our summers. My own view is that from the point of view of my own area, there has been a decline in the quality of our summer ever since the AMO last changed in 1998 or thenabouts, whereas prior to that year we had a run or quite reasonable ones. There is a thread discussing the AMO in the climate forum for anyone who is interested." "

Thanks fotr the pointers David,I have had a look at the AMO, really vast subject, but just some basic observations, from the past AMO when it was colder, from mid 60's to mid 90's we got our best summers of late in that period? So a negative AMO means drier , warmer summers? just as a very basic observation. You would have thought a warmer Atlantic would be more beneficial but not quite the case. Some predictions are now saying we are heading to negative AMO, be interesting if it does we get back to drier warmer summers ?

 

Both GFS 0z and ECM toying with unusually deep depressions in mid-Atlantic, but not agreeing on timing or track. The first of these, on the GFS, is at T+120, ECM a little later; ECM brings the depression across the UK but GFS takes it northwards. They look resemble remnant hurricanes but in fact develop locally off New England.

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To make a change from the cool unsettled zeitgeist, here is the GFS Op from the 0z run showing a plume getting briefly into the SE around 3 August.  Worth keeping a weather eye upon?

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To make a change from the cool unsettled zeitgeist, here is the GFS Op from the 0z run showing a plume getting briefly into the SE around 3 August.  Worth keeping a weather eye upon?

Yes. GEFS offers support I think.

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To make a change from the cool unsettled zeitgeist, here is the GFS Op from the 0z run showing a plume getting briefly into the SE around 3 August.  Worth keeping a weather eye upon?

 

A very IMBY post!

A transient ridge skirting a relatively small area of the UK isn't going to raise a smile for the majority.

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HLB is killing us this summer. Latest GFS is showing the now familiar theme of blocking over Greenland, drifting eastwards to set up over the Barents Sea. It prevents Atlantic lows travelling NE'wards to the north of us, and instead routes them far too close to the UK.

 

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HLB is killing us this summer. Latest GFS is showing the now familiar theme of blocking over Greenland, drifting eastwards to set up over the Barents Sea. It prevents Atlantic lows travelling NE'wards to the north of us, and instead routes them far too close to the UK.

 

As someone who hates heat, I am very happy to see it stay in Europe

Anyway, my tomatoes in the garden are growing like mad at the moment, so I'm delighted!

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Whilst the Op and Control sit with the pack, it's good to see more spread in the later stages of the GFS ens in the 06z; this was more polarised, and worryingly lacking in outliers quite recently- unnaturally over certain for FI, that's for sure.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=194

 

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To make a change from the cool unsettled zeitgeist, here is the GFS Op from the 0z run showing a plume getting briefly into the SE around 3 August.  Worth keeping a weather eye upon?

Certainly is worth keeping a weather eye, Whether I, especially since it's still there on the 06z:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_165_mslp850.png?cb=338

 

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Just analysing the 12Z GFS run out of interest - amazing how that LP area is glued like a limpet to the NW of Scotland. Out to 60 hours and it does not budge a mile.

 

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12z 03 Aug - SNAFU:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_165_1.png

There must be a low pressure magnate off the NW of Scotland this year. Favourite roosting place for pesky depressions.

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Just analysing the 12Z GFS run out of interest - amazing how that LP area is glued like a limpet to the NW of Scotland. Out to 60 hours and it does not budge a mile.

 

That why I mentioned why the jet stream haven't pushed it away quickly?  I started to believe there no jet stream exist at all because if so then the LP would had been already in Russia then China?  Earlier in the summer there was a jet stream right over us that brought variety of weather pattern from brief unsettled days, many settled sunny days and few heat waves all this because HP and LP move eastward freely and very normal for summer time.  Not a single sound of happy kids playing in the gardens around here for nearly 2 weeks now.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Interesting how much of a hump there is in the long term average over the next few days, with the mean rising above 10C.

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Interesting how much of a hump there is in the long term average over the next few days, with the mean rising above 10C.

Yes, in winter such a below average ensemble set would set hearts beating.  My view is that come the second week of August, things will pick up for the south.

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That why I mentioned why the jet stream haven't pushed it away quickly?  I started to believe there no jet stream exist at all because if so then the LP would had been already in Russia then China?  Earlier in the summer there was a jet stream right over us that brought variety of weather pattern from brief unsettled days, many settled sunny days and few heat waves all this because HP and LP move eastward freely and very normal for summer time.  Not a single sound of happy kids playing in the gardens around here for nearly 2 weeks now.

Yeah I get what you say about the jet stream, should shift stuff along .Massive heat for central Europe. Huge high building there and completely missing us. Krakow set to get to 37.5 C the following Saturday according to GFS. But before then they have a week of hot weather starting tomorrow.My thinking is when a huge high forms over central Europe , we see no benefit. Think this happened in 2015 after our 2 day heatwave early July, but the high then blocked for a 6 weeks or so, and we had a crap summer.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Interesting how much of a hump there is in the long term average over the next few days, with the mean rising above 10C.

Used to reached it peak at 11C by 9th August before but with recent cooler summers they had revised down by 2-3C lower than previously.